GRANT-0361 NEP: Project Preparatory Facility for Energy - E4 Risk Analyst for QRA and SRA of Dudhkoshi SHEP (E-047036-001)

1. Project objective

Objective and Purpose of the Assignment

Dudhkoshi Storage Hydroelectric Project (DKSHEP) is a proposed 670 MW storage hydropower project to be

developed on the Dudhkoshi River in eastern Nepal between the boundaries of Okhaldhunga and Khotang

Districts.

Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) had employed ELC Electroconsult S.p.A. (Italy), in

association with NEWJEC Inc. (Japan), to carry out the “Updated Feasibility Study and Detailed Design of

Dudhkoshi Storage Hydroelectric Project” under grant assistance from Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The main 600 MW powerhouse will be an underground facility on the left bank of the Sunkoshi River and 70

MW Dam-Toe powerhouse, also underground, will generate energy from environmental flow release and is

proposed on the right bank of the Dudhkoshi River.

A 220-meter-high concrete-faced rock-fill dam (CFRD)

will create a 31.5-kilometer-long reservoir with a capacity of 1,581 Mm3.

The dam site is located

approximately 210 kilometers east of Kathmandu by road.

For the main 600 MW powerhouse, a natural head of 132 meters will be available from a 13.15-kilometerlong main water tunnel, supplemented by an additional 210-meter artificial head from the reservoir.

The

main Head Race Tunnel is planned to be constructed by using Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM).

The design

discharge for the main powerhouse is 224.4 m3/s.

The Dam-Toe Powerhouse is designed to operate with a

rated head of 182 meters and a design discharge of 40 m³/s.

The construction lots are categorized as follows: Lot 1 (Dam, Intake, and Spillway with Hydraulic Steel

Equipment) and Lot 2 (Main Tunnel and Power House with Hydraulic Steel Equipment) both follow the FIDIC

Conditions of Contract for Underground Works, (Emerald Book, 2019) contract model while Lot 3 (Electromechanical Works) will follow the FIDIC Conditions of Contract for Plant and Design Build (Yellow Book,

2017) model.

DKSHEP is being developed through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) with financing structured through a

blended approach, which integrates an optimal mix of concessional and commercial loans from both

international and domestic lenders, and a direct equity component, with equity participation contributed

by the Government of Nepal (GoN), NEA and its other entities and shareholders.

The Project is progressing towards readiness from technical, financial, environmental and social and

power markets perspectives with the aim of achieving financial close by October 2026.

The Project SPV –

Dudhkoshi Jalvidyut Company Ltd. (DKJVCL) – has been set up with a Board and a core executive team.

This

SPV needs to work closely with NEA, Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation (MoEWRI),

Ministry of Finance (MoF), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and other stakeholders towards completing these

activities in time and with the quality required for development of projects of this scale.

DKSHEP is now looking at engaging a Construction Expert - Risk Analyst (CE-RA) to coordinate and conduct

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) and Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) for the Project to provide

information on risks of various activities in construction quantities and schedule and determine the

level of contingencies to be incorporated in the cost and schedule of the Project.

This input will be

vital to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of DKJVCL and his management team for finalizing the project

valuation, financing, and construction management issues at DKSHEP.

Scope of Work

CE-RA will work together with a Construction Expert – Engineering Geologist (CE-EG) and Construction

Expert – Construction Management & Contracts (CE-CMC).

CE-RA shall be responsible to conduct required

studies, review project engineering documents, discuss with Project team, Consultant and other experts,

to determine potential variation in estimate of quantities and construction schedule from a construction

perspective including TBM related risks.

To ensure a unified assessment of site conditions, the CE-RA

shall conduct the site visit concurrently and in close coordination with the CE-EG and CE-CMC;

however,

the specific duration of each expert’s field presence may be adjusted according to their individual

technical responsibilities.

CE-RA will discuss and finalize relevant inputs with the CE-EG and CE-CMC in

finalizing inputs to the QRA and SRA models on quantity and schedule variations for probabilistic

assessments.

These inputs shall be discussed and finalized in a workshop that will be led by the CE-RA

and shall be conducted at the Project Office together with CE-EG, CE-CMC, Project Team and Consultants.

Once inputs to the QRA and SRA models are finalized, RA will conduct the QRA and SRA and come up with

risk estimates on quantity, schedule and to project cost.

The CE-RA shall share technical expertise and knowledge through meetings, consultations and field

visits.

The CE-RA shall document the results of each of its visits including the overall conclusions and

recommendations.

The expert shall maintain the confidentiality of all confidential information which

shall not be disclosed to any third parties without the written consent of DKSHEP.

The essential details of the Project for this assignment;

reports and other details will be provided to

the selected consultant.

Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output

The detailed tasks and responsibilities for the CE-RA shall include, but will not be limited to the

following works:

1.

Review of Project reports regarding risk assessment, scheduling, cost estimate, calculation of

contingencies, etc.

The contractual risks arising from TBM in HRT construction, as governed by the FIDIC

Emerald Book, shall also be analyzed.

2.

Prerequisites for QRA and SRA will include preparation of:

a.

Cost Estimates grouped in standard Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), if not already available;

b.

Baseline Master Plan organized according to the WBS.

Start/Finish, Critical Path;

c.

Project’s monthly cost of delay;

d.

Estimated income, distributed per month;

e.

Qualitative Risk Assessment;

f.

Reference projects;

g.

Value Engineering (if performed)

h.

Risk Register

i.

Risk Management Plan

3.

Adjust the standard WBS to the Project;

4.

An estimated time-schedule corresponding with the WBS above.

5.

Lead the QRA & SRA Workshop

6.

Enter Planned Cost based on best possible estimates.

These are to be referred as PROBABLE values.

Define Optimistic and Pessimistic values on each cost - and time activity.

These are referred to as

WORST-CASE and BEST-CASE values.

7.

Take notes during the Workshop and document the discussion points.

Define action points for how to

reduce the identified risks.

8.

Prepare and Review the Tornado diagram and Cumulative-curve.

9.

Define the Contingency (the difference between the estimate and P70) based on Quantitative Risks.

10.

Conduct similar exercise for Schedule Risks.

11.

Combine Quantitative and Schedule Risks to determine contingencies and revenue loss.

12.

Provide training to the Project team on the industry-standard software utilized for QRA and SRA, as

well as the interpretation of its outputs, if required by DKSHEP

13.

Provide reports on QRA and SRA reports.

With particular reference to pandemic disease outbreaks, any need for international and/or national

travel shall be assessed by DKSHEP and the Consultant using DKSHEP's advice at the time of travel.

Subject to DKSHEP's approval, the Consultant may use remote video technology meetings to replace face to

face meetings as considered necessary.

Minimum Qualification Requirements

The CE- RA shall have the following minimum Qualification and Experience:

1.

Master’s degree or equivalent in Risk Management;

2.

At least 15 years General Experience in Hydropower Project (Project Identification, Project

Development, Construction Management, Operation and Maintenance)

3.

Experience in Construction of at least one hydropower projects with underground structures with

installed capacity of 300 MW or above

4.

Experience in Risk Assessment including QRA & SRA of at least one hydropower projects with installed

capacity of 300 MW or above.

5.

At least 7 Years International Experience (other than Home Country) in Risk Assessment of

Hydroelectric Projects

6.

Experience in Risk Assessment of at least one hydropower projects with installed capacity of 100 MW

or above in Himalayan Geology (Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Afghanistan).

Minimum General Experience 15

Years

Minimum Specific Experience (relevant to assignment) 0.17

Years

Regional/Country Experience Required

Desired

Not Required

Deliverables

Details Name Type Estimated Submission Date

Inception Report after the Site Visit and QRA & SRA Workshop.

Report

QRA and SRA reports with cost and schedule estimates for base case,best-case and worst-casescenarios Report

Recommendations for industry-standard software to be used during construction.

Report

Schedule and Places of Assignment (chronological and inclusive of travel)

Schedule Type Continuous

Intermittent

Max.

Working Days/Week Home Office 5

Field 5

City and Country Working Days Estimated Start Date Estimated End Date Other Details (use if place selected is Others)

Kathmandu, Nepal Search and Select: Place

10 16-Nov-2026 27-Nov-2026 Travel to Project Site on project related matter is required.

Home Office, Other Search and Select: Place

44 28-Nov-2026 28-Jan-2027

Kathmandu, Nepal Search and Select: Place

12 29-Jan-2027 15-Feb-2027 Travel to Project Site on project related matter is required.

Total

66

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Copyright (c) 1998, 2023, Oracle and/or its affiliates.

All rights reserved.

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