TA-10414 REG: Transport Interventions to Boost Trade and Tackle Climate Change in the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Region (E-058064-001)

Objective and Purpose of the Assignment The South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) program, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), promotes regional cooperation and economic integration among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. A key analytical tool supporting SASEC investment decisions and corridor planning is the SASEC Transport Model developed in 2022. The existing model was built on CUBE Voyager (Version 6.5) as a four-stage inter-country transport model with a base year of 2022 and horizon years of 2027 and 2032. It covers 298 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) across the SASEC study area plus 12 rest-of-world TAZs, and models freight (15 commodity groups in tonnes) and passenger (trips) demand across road, rail, sea, and inland waterway modes. The ADB Sectors Department Transport has identified the need to update and significantly enhance the transport model to align with the SASEC Strategy 2035 for Transport Operational Priority (SST2035) that was endorsed by the SASEC Transport Working Group (TWG) and SASEC Senior Officials in 2025. The primary strategic motivation is to shift the analytical framework from a road-centric model with limited multimodal feedback to a fully integrated multimodal assignment-based model that can evaluate mode-shift strategies, lower-emission routing, and intermodal interchange capacity constraints across all SASEC corridor modes. The objective is to update, enhance, and recalibrate the SASEC transport model and support the SASEC countries to achieve the outcomes outlined in SST2035. The main tasks towards this objective would be to: · Update the model by transitioning the modelling framework from a four-stage model with road-only assignment to a multimodal equilibrium assignment model covering road, rail, inland waterways (IWW), and sea along with intermodal interactions and cross border facilities. The model may be developed using any appropriate software; however, it should be compatible with the other sub regional models (such as CAREC and GMS) that have been developed in CUBE. · Calibrate and validate the updated model against observed flows across all SASEC corridors. Deliver an updated, documented, and operational model suitable for use by ADB and SASEC partner countries in corridor planning and investment decision-making. · Build capacity to quantify emissions per tonne of cargo along multimodal routes to evaluate savings in emissions at shipment level through mode-shift strategies. · Present the status of the model development at the 2026 TWG Meeting and the full model and outputs at the 2027 TWG Meeting. · Liaise with SASEC countries, as required, for data collection, consultations, site visits, presentations and development of strategies and solutions. The scope of work will include, but not be limited to, the following tasks: A. Model Update — Transition to Multimodal Equilibrium Assignment 1. Review existing Model to identify gaps, limitations, and elements requiring re-estimation or replacement for the multimodal framework 2. Update the Base Year OD Matrix to 2025 through a growth model at the TAZ-level and perform a preliminary validation of the grown matrices against available 2025 data, especially, cross border trade statistics. 3. Develop a multimodal transport network to replace the existing road-only assignment network. The network shall explicitly represent all modes and intermodal interchange facilities across SASEC corridors. a. Road Network: Update the existing geo-coded SASEC road network. b. Rail Network: Develop a geo-coded rail network for SASEC corridor rail routes, including, track gauge, line capacity, station/yard capacities, and operational attributes. c. Inland Waterway (IWW) Network: Develop an IWW network layer covering National Waterways and SASEC IWT routes including terminal locations, access links (road or rail), capacity, and operational attributes. d. Sea/Maritime Network: Develop a maritime network layer covering SASEC seaports with focus on Coastal Shipping and Maritime routes and attributes. e. Intermodal Transfer Nodes and Cross-Border Facilities: Code intermodal nodes including ICDs, dry ports, land ports, and multimodal logistics parks as explicit network nodes. Assign modal interchange penalties, average dwell time, transshipment cost, and capacity constraints to each node. Code SASEC land border crossing points with current attributes: average truck waiting time, customs clearance time, operating hours, and applicable tariffs and fees. f. Allow multi-leg, multi-modal route combinations with no restriction on the number of mode changes per route (e.g., road–rail–IWW–road, or road–sea–road). 4. Design and implement a multimodal equilibrium assignment model in which the generalized cost on any mode and route simultaneously influences route and mode choice across all modes. This replaces the current one-directional four-stage process (where mode split does not feed back into the assignment) with a dynamic equilibrium loop. Generalized cost to include all freight and logistic cost components, including, travel time, distance, VOC, border delays, customs clearance, port charges, other handling and transfer costs. 5. This is envisaged as an assignment-based model with mode choice being addressed through multimodal assignment. B. Base Year Model Calibration and Validation 6. Collect data required to calibrate and validate the multimodal model against observed 2025 conditions across SASEC corridors. This includes SASEC country consultations, as appropriate. Primary surveys are not envisaged as part of this assignment. 7. Calibration of the model through adjustment to multimodal assignment function parameters and other inputs and OD Matrix refinement such that assigned link volumes align with observed counts, while preserving the structural integrity of the matrices. 8. Validate the calibrated 2025 base year model against internationally accepted criteria, which may include the following, assessed at network level and by country sub-network of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka: a. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 30% for total traffic volume on validation links (consistent with NZ Transport Agency Guidelines applied in the original model), assessed separately for passenger, freight, and total traffic. b. GEH Statistic Expertise or Positions Needed International Team Leadership from International Experts Expertise or Position Minimum inputs in PM Primary Place of Assignment 1 Team Leader / Transport and Logistics Planning Expert 4 Regional, Other Search and Select: Place of Assignment 2 Transport Modelling Expert 6 Regional, Other Search and Select: Place of Assignment 3 Freight and Commodity Flow Specialist 2 Regional, Other Search and Select: Place of Assignment 4 Transport Emissions and Climate Change Specialist 2 Regional, Other Search and Select: Place of Assignment 5 Mode Choice Model Expert 2 Regional, Other Search and Select: Place of Assignment National Team Leadership from National Experts Expertise or Position Minimum inputs in PM Primary Place of Assignment No results found. 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